In a landscape characterized by uncertainty, shifting consumer behavior, and broader economic changes, the 2025 shopping season is taking form. With tariffs likely to be around in some form, brands are navigating cost pressures, supply chain volatility, and changes in shopper sentiment. At the same time, long-building trends in AI, mobile commerce, and personalization have reached an inflection point.

What does this mean for marketers planning for Black Friday Cyber Monday (BFCM) and the  year-end shopping period? Below are six trends and predictions we expect to shape the 2025 season, along with actionable strategies brands can adapt to thrive

Prediction: Consumers will prioritize value over volume, seeking deals, bundles, and loyalty rewards rather than buying more items or spending freely.

Economic pressure and tariff-related uncertainty are pushing consumers to shop more intentionally. Shoppers are looking for the “ideal gift” rather than purchasing multiple, less-thoughtful items, and even budget-friendly products are now subject to greater scrutiny. Our recent Consumer Pulse survey found that 31% of shoppers plan to buy fewer items, and 35% will seek out more deals and discounts this BFCM.

Recommendations for brands:

• Coordinate cross-channel messaging to deliver timely, personalized promotions that showcase value beyond simple discounts.
• Create urgency using SMS, push, and email to drive conversions within limited-time deals.
• Use a range of incentives outside of straight discounts, such as early access, loyalty points, or bundles, to maintain margin.

Inspire shoppers with curated gift guides that help them discover the perfect gift, like Kendra Scott’s tiered shopping guides.

Prediction: Consumers will want hyper-relevant product recommendations, not generic blasts.

Overwhelmed with choice, consumers cited their #1 challenge was product discovery in our 2025 Consumer Trends survey. Fortunately, 77% say they are more likely to purchase with personalized product recommendations, and 99% are willing to share some form of zero-party data in exchange for those relevant recommendations.

Recommendations for brands:

• Gather and activate zero and first-party data to power relevant product recommendations.

Build guided shopping flows and restock alerts to assist consumers in real time.

Prediction: BFCM will stretch into a months-long cycle, with earlier shopping and a diminished role for Cyber Week.

Consumers are becoming more strategic and less event-driven. Cyber Week's share of Q4 revenue has been slowly shrinking, according to eMarketer, and based on our Pulse survey, 27% of consumers plan to start shopping earlier this season, jumping to 45% among Gen Z. Brands will need to prepare for longer campaigns and calendar-based drops that start as early as September.

Recommendations for brands:

• Plan to launch your BFCM campaigns earlier and engage shoppers over a longer period.
• Create special cross-channel campaigns to engage throughout a long season, e.g., “VIP Weekend” or “12 Days of Deals.”
• Build moments around product launches, not just deals. Create waitlists for new or exclusive items to build urgency and become a planned purchase.
• Use segmentation and countdown campaigns to maintain urgency without over-sending.

Prediction: Brands that leverage AI to personalize offers, timing, and content will outperform competitors.

AI is no longer experimental—it's mission-critical. In 2024, brands using Attentive's AI-powered messaging saw 86% YoY revenue growth during Cyber Week. AI is opening up new possibilities in personalization for marketers (such as Cecil and Lou sending AI-powered time-optimized messages).

And consumer expectations for personalization keep on rising. In our 2025 survey, 81% of consumers we surveyed say they ignore generic messages, while 71% want brands to learn from their habits over time. Personalization also drives loyalty: 66% appreciate when brands remember preferences, 52% value relevant product suggestions, and 47% want recognition of past interactions. Brands need to think of personalization as the foundation of a lasting relationship with their customers this gift-giving season and beyond.

Recommendations for brands:

• Use AI to optimize send times, offer types, and channel selection. For example, deploy Send Time AI in the lead-up to BFCM, then switch to fixed-time sends for limited promotions.
• Grow your list ahead of BFCM, with tools like AI Grow, to build and engage high-intent audiences early.
• Deliver truly personalized messages to drive higher engagement and revenue, such as AI Journeys.

Prediction: Mobile commerce will drive the majority of e-commerce growth during the 2025 Cyber Week and end of year retail season.

According to eMarketer, mobile is set to power 75% of all e-commerce growth this season, and will account for more than half of overall festive spending (Source: US Holiday 2024 Recap and 2025 Preview, March, 2025). As more consumers shop via their phones, mobile messaging becomes a direct line to conversion. Brands must ensure a mobile-optimized shopping experience across their website and app, from product discovery to checkout.

Recommendations for brands:

• Optimize mobile-first channels, such as, SMS, email, and push to maximize engagement and conversion.
• Invest in a mobile-owned channel strategy to gather zero-party data that can be used to personalize future marketing campaigns and reduce reliance on third-party platforms to reach your audience.
• Optimize every piece of content, such as images, CTAs, and copy, for mobile-first experiences.

Prediction: With ongoing supply chain issues and cost pressures, urgency and transparency around inventory will become a top conversion driver.

Nearly two-thirds of marketers say they’re concerned about inventory shortages in the next 3–6 months, per our May 2025 Marketer Pulse. Consumers are starting their shopping earlier to avoid stock-outs, which means brands must now proactively communicate stock levels, delivery timelines, and shipping information.

Recommendations for brands:

• Message low inventory and back-in-stock alerts via mobile to drive immediate action.
• Use waitlists, notify-me buttons, and pre-orders to manage demand.
• Shift promotion strategies to in-stock products and surface relevant alternatives.
• Maintain trust post-purchase with accurate delivery estimates and real-time updates.

The 2025 festive season won’t be business as usual. Between economic pressure, evolving consumer expectations, and rapid tech adoption, marketers will need to meet shoppers with smarter campaigns, earlier timing, and outstanding value.

Brands that prioritize personalization, mobile engagement, and inventory transparency will be best positioned to build loyalty and drive revenue.

If you’re an Attentive customer and want to discuss these trends and strategies in more detail, reach out to your CSM—we’re here to help you make this your most successful season yet.